The reviews on the climate lawsuit filed last month by Multnomah County, Oregon are in, and they aren’t pretty. The lawsuit, which attempts to blame a number of energy companies for the effects of the 2021 heat dome extreme weather event that hit Portland and the surrounding region, has been met with significant skepticism from across the political spectrum.

The center-left editorial board of The Oregonian criticized the Multnomah County Commission for filing a climate lawsuit – and for the “fanfare” surrounding the announcement – instead of addressing the number of “less flashy” crises facing residents, including “homelessness, untreated mental health and substance abuse addiction.” The editorial board wrote:

“While filing a lawsuit against Big Oil may scratch a populist itch, this isn’t the kind of governance residents need. Commissioners should save their self-congratulatory excitement and focus on the less flashy nuts and bolts of delivering solutions to the crises and realities facing county residents every day.” (emphasis added)

The editorial board also pointed out issues with the lawsuit’s reliance on climate attribution science, citing a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Michael Wehner, who has studied the heat dome as part of his research into extreme weather events:

“But while mathematical models allow for estimating the temperature increase attributable to climate change, it’s harder to quantify how much it affected the likelihood of this incredibly rare event occurring, Wehner noted.

“Those scientific unknowns, along with the legal and jurisdictional questions that always arise in such cases, make victory far from certain. What is known, however, is that the county’s missteps in responding to this and other emergencies reflect weaknesses in governance.”

The perils of basing a legal strategy on attribution science were also highlighted by meteorologist, climate researcher and former NOAA official, Ryan Maue, who called the lawsuit’s claims “fantastical.” Maue explained that the 2021 heat dome that hit the Pacific Northwest likely would have happened regardless of climate change, but the County’s complaint “[jams] together” … “every statistical result from climate attribution research papers in favor of the plaintiff.” But there are other approaches to the science that lead to a different result, as Maue tweeted:

A lawsuit was filed by Oregon’s Multnomah County against oil companies and McKinsey Consulting for billions ($) for allegedly causing a “heat dome” record hot 🌡June 2021.

The claims are fantastical. I’m not a lawyer (yet), but I can see from the climate science “facts”…

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) July 1, 2023

Finally, Mark Trexler, an Oregon-based climate consultant and Professor at George Washington University, took to LinkedIn to point out why Multnomah County’s lawsuit, and others like it that hinge on attribution science, are neither strong legal arguments nor effective tools to mitigate climate change.

Listing “questions that a judge and jury will have to grapple with” in order to reach a decision favorable to the plaintiff, Trexler pointed out that a judge or jury would have to consider if the “actual emissions of the named defendants cause[d] the heat dome,” and if “jurors want to pay MUCH more their gasoline and electricity” should that be the outcome. He concluded:

“Given the kinds of implications suggested above, a leading lawyer at a major Public Trust conference years ago noted that a judge (and presumably a jury) would be ‘insane’ to deliver the kind of outcome being requested by Multnomah County. That still seems true, regardless of improving attribution science. And regardless of how alarmed one is about climate change – as indeed I am!” (emphasis added)

Bottom Line: Multnomah County’s climate lawsuit lacks rigorous scientific evidence and ignores the county’s own tragic negligence during the heatwave. Policymakers should be focused on real climate solutions, not wasting resources on frivolous suits that could potentially have dire economic consequences and harm America’s energy security.